Prices update every 60 seconds via market data feed. Last updated: April 8, 2026 — Prices are indicative
Through most of January and February 2026, Brent crude traded in a relatively narrow band around $72-$78 per barrel. WTI hovered in the $68-$74 range. The prevailing narrative was one of balance -- supply was adequate, inventories within seasonal norms. That world ended on February 28, 2026.
Week 1 (Feb 28 - Mar 6): Initial strikes sent Brent from $75 to $92 in three sessions.
Week 2 (Mar 7 - Mar 13): Iran's retaliation near the Strait pushed Brent through $100.
Week 3 (Mar 14 - Mar 20): Effective Strait closure. Brent rocketed to $118.
Week 4 (Mar 21 - Mar 27): OPEC+ emergency session, no increase. Brent touched $130.
Week 5 (Mar 28 - Apr 3): Consolidation at $122-$132. IEA strategic reserve release.
Week 6 (Apr 4 - Apr 7): Brent at $128-$134. April 8 deadline approaches. Daily swings of $4-$8.
Any dip below signals meaningful de-escalation.
Tested four times without sustaining a breakout.
If April 8 deadline passes without progress.
Direct strikes on oil infrastructure or wider conflict.
Goldman Sachs -- Q2 Brent forecast revised to $135 (from $82). Upside scenario $150 if Strait stays closed through June.
Morgan Stanley -- Projects $125-$140 through Q3. Alternative shipping adds $8-$12/bbl in transport costs.
IEA -- Called the Hormuz closure the most significant supply disruption since the 1973 embargo.
Vessel transits down 95% from normal volumes
Under normal conditions, approximately 20-21 million barrels of oil per day transit the Strait of Hormuz. That represents roughly 20% of all global seaborne oil trade. The Strait is the single most critical chokepoint in the global energy supply chain. No other waterway comes close.
| Metric | Normal | During Crisis | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Daily Vessel Transits | ~80-90 | ~3-5 | -95% |
| Oil Volume (mb/d) | ~20-21 | ~0.5-1.0 | -95% |
| LNG Shipments (bcf/d) | ~6.5 | ~0.3 | -95% |
| Insurance Premium | 0.1-0.2% | 5-8%+ | +3,500% |
A credible, verified reopening would likely trigger a rapid $25-$40 correction in Brent crude. However, even in a best-case scenario, analysts estimate Brent would settle around $90-$95 -- permanently above pre-crisis levels due to elevated geopolitical risk premium.
This is the most consequential week for oil markets since the crisis began. Three factors converge to create extraordinary uncertainty and opportunity.
Iran agrees to terms. Strait begins reopening. Oil drops $20-$30 in a single session.
Deadline passes, U.S. takes military action. Oil spikes toward $140-$150.
Strong rhetoric, no meaningful change. Oil stays in $125-$135 range with elevated volatility.
Expect extreme volatility. Daily ranges of $6-$10 on Brent are probable. Traders should be prepared for gap openings, particularly if news breaks over weekends or during Asian trading hours.
| Date | Brent (USD) | WTI (USD) | Key Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27 | $75.20 | $70.85 | Pre-crisis baseline |
| Feb 28 | $82.40 | $77.90 | Military strikes begin |
| Mar 3 | $92.15 | $87.30 | Initial surge peak |
| Mar 7 | $96.80 | $91.50 | Hormuz transit warnings |
| Mar 10 | $101.40 | $96.20 | Brent breaks $100 |
| Mar 14 | $108.60 | $103.10 | Strait closure begins |
| Mar 17 | $118.30 | $112.80 | Insurance markets reprice |
| Mar 21 | $125.40 | $119.70 | OPEC+ emergency meeting |
| Mar 24 | $130.20 | $124.50 | Intraday high: $132.80 |
| Mar 28 | $126.50 | $121.20 | IEA strategic reserve release |
| Mar 31 | $128.80 | $123.40 | Consolidation phase |
| Apr 3 | $131.50 | $126.10 | Iran rejects ceasefire |
| Apr 7 | ~$129-134 | ~$124-129 | Deadline week begins |
| Member | Quota (mb/d) | Actual (mb/d) | Compliance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | 10.5 | 10.3 | Over-compliant |
| Russia | 9.9 | 9.7 | Over-compliant |
| Iraq | 4.4 | 4.5 | Under-compliant |
| UAE | 3.2 | 3.1 | Compliant |
| Kuwait | 2.7 | 2.6 | Compliant |
Note: Effective output from Gulf producers significantly reduced due to Strait closure limiting exports.
Current Level: ~345 million barrels (post-IEA release)
Pre-Release Level: ~370 million barrels
Historical Peak: 727 million barrels (2009)
Refill Timeline: Replenishment paused indefinitely at current price levels
2026 Global Demand: 103.8 mb/d (revised down from 104.5 due to demand destruction)
Demand Destruction: 0.5-0.7 mb/d at sustained prices above $120
China Growth: Slowed to 0.3 mb/d (from projected 0.6)
OECD Demand: Contracting by 0.2 mb/d at current levels
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