On February 28, 2026, the global energy map changed overnight. Military strikes against Iran triggered a sequence of escalation that led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz -- the single most important chokepoint in global oil logistics. Six weeks later, the waterway remains shut. Oil has surged 66%. And the world is confronting an energy disruption that the IEA says has no modern precedent in scale.
This page covers what happened, what it means for oil markets, and how investors are positioning themselves in response.
On the morning of February 28, 2026, a coordinated military operation launched strikes against targets inside Iran. The stated objective was the destruction of Iran's nuclear enrichment facilities. Multiple sites were hit in the opening hours.
Within days, Iran responded. The retaliation was broad and calculated. Missile and drone strikes targeted infrastructure in the United Arab Emirates, including Dubai. Airports sustained damage. Commercial districts were hit. The physical strikes on a major global financial and logistics hub sent shockwaves through international markets overnight. But the most consequential move was not the missiles. It was what happened in the water.
Iran moved to shut down the Strait of Hormuz -- the 21-mile-wide passage between Iran and Oman through which roughly 20% of the world's seaborne oil transits daily. Using a combination of naval assets, mines, and the credible threat of anti-ship missiles, Iran rendered the waterway impassable for commercial tankers. Vessel transits through the Strait dropped by 95%. Insurance companies pulled coverage for Gulf-bound tankers or priced premiums at levels that made shipments economically unviable. Approximately 20 million barrels per day of crude oil and refined products were removed from the global supply chain.
As of early April 2026, the Strait remains closed. Diplomatic efforts have not produced a ceasefire. Iran rejected the most recent proposal. A deadline set by the U.S. administration has come and gone without resolution. This is the longest major disruption to oil transit since the 1973 Arab oil embargo -- and in terms of volume affected, it is significantly larger.
Before the conflict began, Brent crude oil was trading near $75 per barrel. The Hormuz closure changed the calculus instantly. Within the first two weeks, Brent surged past $100. By mid-March, it was trading above $110. At recent highs, Brent touched $126 per barrel -- a 66% increase from pre-war levels. WTI crude has tracked a similar trajectory, trading roughly $4-5 below Brent.
The International Energy Agency has characterized this disruption as the most significant threat to energy security in the modern era. No previous disruption -- not the 1973 embargo, not the 1979 Iranian Revolution, not the 1990 Gulf War -- removed this volume of oil from the market for this duration. During the 1973 embargo, the Arab members of OPEC cut production by approximately 5 million barrels per day. The Hormuz closure affects four times that volume.
Governments have responded by releasing strategic petroleum reserves. But strategic reserves are finite. They are designed to bridge weeks of disruption, not months. Alternative shipping routes exist -- primarily around the southern tip of Africa -- but they add two to three weeks to transit times and substantially increase costs.
Goldman Sachs has issued updated commodity forecasts. Their gold target stands at $4,900 per ounce. On oil, their modeling includes scenarios where Brent crude reaches $150 to $200 per barrel if the Strait remains closed through summer or if the conflict escalates further. These are scenario projections, not guarantees, but they reflect the seriousness with which institutional analysts are treating this disruption.
Oil is not just a commodity -- it is an input cost for virtually every industry. When oil prices rise 66% in six weeks, the effects cascade through supply chains. Shipping costs increase. Manufacturing inputs become more expensive. Airlines face fuel surcharges. The inflationary pressure is already showing up in economic data.
The UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and other Gulf states face a dual reality. On one hand, the oil they hold is worth dramatically more. On the other hand, physical damage to infrastructure (particularly in the UAE), disrupted shipping routes, and geopolitical uncertainty have weighed on local markets. Dubai property has seen discounts of 20-35% from pre-crisis levels.
The most visible impact for everyday consumers is at the gas pump. U.S. gasoline prices have risen sharply. In Europe, the impact has been even more pronounced. For consumers in developing nations that import refined fuel, the situation is acute.
For investors, the crisis represents both risk and opportunity. The risk is obvious: geopolitical volatility, potential for rapid price reversals, and the possibility of broader economic contagion. The opportunity is equally clear: a massive, identifiable supply disruption with quantifiable parameters and tradeable instruments on every major platform.
Commodity trading volumes have reached all-time highs across platforms. Oil is currently the most traded asset class on platforms like eToro, surpassing even major stock indices and cryptocurrency. Retail participation in oil markets has surged as individual investors seek to either hedge against inflation or capitalize on the price move.
Institutional investors have significantly increased oil weightings in multi-asset portfolios. The trade is straightforward: a physical supply shortfall of this magnitude supports elevated prices until the supply returns. The uncertainty is in the timing.
Oil company stocks have outperformed the broader market significantly since February. Tanker operators deserve special attention. The rerouting of oil shipments around Africa has dramatically increased demand for tanker capacity. Voyage distances are longer. Vessel utilization is at maximum. Day rates have hit levels not seen since the late 2000s.
Not all investors are buying energy. Some are positioning for a ceasefire scenario -- going long on assets beaten down by the conflict. Dubai real estate at 20-35% discounts is attracting buyers who believe the crisis will resolve. Airline stocks are being accumulated by deep-value investors betting on normalization.
Contracts for Difference allow you to trade the price of Brent or WTI crude directly, without taking physical delivery. Platforms like eToro and Plus500 offer oil CFDs with minimum deposits starting around $200. You can trade long or short. CFDs are leveraged, which means both your gains and your losses are amplified.
For more sophisticated investors, oil futures contracts trade on the NYMEX (WTI) and ICE (Brent). Each contract represents 1,000 barrels of oil. Futures require a futures-enabled brokerage account, higher minimum capital, and an understanding of contract expiration and rollover mechanics.
USO -- Tracks WTI crude. BNO -- Tracks Brent crude. DBO -- Optimized roll strategy. XLE -- Major U.S. energy stocks. XOP -- E&P companies with higher oil price sensitivity. ETFs are less precise than CFDs for short-term trading, but most accessible for standard brokerage accounts.
Integrated majors -- Large-cap producers with diversified operations. E&P companies -- Higher earnings sensitivity to oil prices. Tanker operators -- Direct beneficiaries of rerouted shipping. Oilfield services -- Drilling equipment and logistics providers.
Position sizing -- Never put more than 2-5% of your portfolio into a single oil position.
Stop losses -- Define your exit before you enter. A stop loss at 5-10% below your entry protects you from catastrophic losses.
Take profit levels -- Have a plan for when you will exit winning positions.
Leverage control -- Just because a platform offers 20:1 leverage does not mean you should use it.
Never invest more than you can afford to lose.
| Feature | eToro | Plus500 | AvaTrade |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best For | Beginners, social trading | Experienced traders | Options & advanced |
| Oil Instruments | CFDs (Brent, WTI) | CFDs + Natural Gas | CFDs + Options |
| Min Deposit | $200 | $100 | $100 |
| Leverage | Up to 10:1 | Up to 20:1 | Up to 20:1 |
| Copy Trading | Yes | No | No |
| Demo Account | Yes (free) | Yes (free) | Yes (free) |
| Regulation | FCA, CySEC, ASIC | FCA, CySEC, ASIC, MAS | CBI, ASIC, FSA |
A diplomatic breakthrough leads to a ceasefire. Iran agrees to allow commercial traffic through the Strait. The waterway reopens within weeks.
Oil price impact: Brent drops rapidly to $80-90 per barrel as the supply disruption premium evaporates.
Key signal: Credible ceasefire talks with Iranian participation, reduction in naval posturing near the Strait.
The conflict continues at current intensity. The Strait remains closed for several more months. Global supply chains gradually adjust.
Oil price impact: Brent stabilizes in the $110-130 range. Volatility decreases but remains elevated.
Key signal: Tanker rerouting reaching capacity, SPR drawdown rates, demand data from major importers.
The conflict escalates. Additional actors enter. Critical infrastructure beyond the Strait is targeted. Oil supply disruptions broaden.
Oil price impact: Brent moves toward $150-200 per barrel. Global recession becomes probable.
Key signal: Expansion of military operations, attacks on Saudi or Iraqi oil infrastructure, involvement of additional state actors.
In all three scenarios, informed investors who understand the dynamics, the instruments, and the risk management principles have a structural advantage over those reacting emotionally to headlines. The edge is not in predicting which scenario unfolds. It is in being prepared for all of them.
A 47-page guide covering everything you need to trade the oil crisis with confidence. Includes detailed platform walkthroughs, position sizing calculators, scenario models, and specific trade setups with entry, stop, and target levels.
Every morning before the markets open, we deliver a concise briefing covering overnight price action, geopolitical developments, supply data releases, and analyst calls. Under three minutes to read. Used by over 10,000 investors.